A NEW METHOD AND METRIC FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Peng Zhou, Hareton Leung

2011

Abstract

Quantitative risk analysis provides practitioners a deeper understanding of the risks in their projects. However, the existing methods for impact assessment are inaccurate and the metrics for risk prioritization also can not properly prioritize the risks for certain cases. In this paper, we propose a method for measuring risk impact by using AHP. We also propose a new indicator, risk intensity (RI), to prioritize the risks of a project. Compared with the widely used metric Risk Exposure (RE), the contours of RI show a convex pattern whereas the contours of RE show a concave pattern. RI allows practitioners weight probability and risk impact differently and can better satisfy the needs of risk prioritization. Through a case study, we found that RI could better prioritize the risks than RE.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Zhou P. and Leung H. (2011). A NEW METHOD AND METRIC FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS . In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 3: ICEIS, ISBN 978-989-8425-55-3, pages 25-33. DOI: 10.5220/0003442200250033

in Bibtex Style

@conference{iceis11,
author={Peng Zhou and Hareton Leung},
title={A NEW METHOD AND METRIC FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 3: ICEIS,},
year={2011},
pages={25-33},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0003442200250033},
isbn={978-989-8425-55-3},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems - Volume 3: ICEIS,
TI - A NEW METHOD AND METRIC FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
SN - 978-989-8425-55-3
AU - Zhou P.
AU - Leung H.
PY - 2011
SP - 25
EP - 33
DO - 10.5220/0003442200250033