DEAL EFFECT CURVE AND PROMOTIONAL MODELS - Using Machine Learning and Bootstrap Resampling Test

Cristina Soguero-Ruiz, Francisco Javier Gimeno-Blanes, Inmaculada Mora-Jiménez, María Pilar Martínez-Ruiz, José Luis Rojo-Álvarez

2012

Abstract

Promotional sales have become in recent years a paramount issue in the marketing strategies of many companies, specially in the current economic situation. Empirical models of consumer promotional behavior, mostly based on machine learning methods, are becoming more usual than theoretical models, given the complexity of the promotional interactions and the availability of electronic recordings. However, the performance description and comparison among promotion models are usually made in terms of absolute and empirical values, which is a limited handling of the information. Here we first propose to use a simple nonparametric statistical tool, the paired bootstrap resampling, for establishing clear cut-off test based comparisons among methods for machine learning based promotional models, by simply taking into account the estimated statistical distribution of the actual risk. The method is used to determine the existence of actual statistically significant differences in the performance of different machine design issues for multilayer perceptron based marketing models, in a real database of everyday goods (milk products). Our results show that paired bootstrap resampling is a simple and effective procedure for promotional modeling using machine learning techniques.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Soguero-Ruiz C., Javier Gimeno-Blanes F., Mora-Jiménez I., Pilar Martínez-Ruiz M. and Luis Rojo-Álvarez J. (2012). DEAL EFFECT CURVE AND PROMOTIONAL MODELS - Using Machine Learning and Bootstrap Resampling Test . In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Pattern Recognition Applications and Methods - Volume 2: ICPRAM, ISBN 978-989-8425-99-7, pages 537-540. DOI: 10.5220/0003732705370540

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icpram12,
author={Cristina Soguero-Ruiz and Francisco Javier Gimeno-Blanes and Inmaculada Mora-Jiménez and María Pilar Martínez-Ruiz and José Luis Rojo-Álvarez},
title={DEAL EFFECT CURVE AND PROMOTIONAL MODELS - Using Machine Learning and Bootstrap Resampling Test},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Pattern Recognition Applications and Methods - Volume 2: ICPRAM,},
year={2012},
pages={537-540},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0003732705370540},
isbn={978-989-8425-99-7},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Pattern Recognition Applications and Methods - Volume 2: ICPRAM,
TI - DEAL EFFECT CURVE AND PROMOTIONAL MODELS - Using Machine Learning and Bootstrap Resampling Test
SN - 978-989-8425-99-7
AU - Soguero-Ruiz C.
AU - Javier Gimeno-Blanes F.
AU - Mora-Jiménez I.
AU - Pilar Martínez-Ruiz M.
AU - Luis Rojo-Álvarez J.
PY - 2012
SP - 537
EP - 540
DO - 10.5220/0003732705370540