Is it Possible to Generate Good Earthquake Risk Models Using Genetic Algorithms?

Claus Aranha, Yuri Cossich Lavinas, Marcelo Ladeira, Bogdan Enescu

2014

Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms and patterns of earthquake occurrence is of crucial importance for assessing and mitigating the seismic risk. In this work we analyze the viability of using Evolutionary Computation (EC) as a means of generating models for the occurrence of earthquakes. Our proposal is made in the context of the "Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability" (CSEP), an international effort to standardize the study and testing of earthquake forecasting models. We use a standard Genetic Algorithm (GA) with real valued genome, where each allele corresponds to a bin in the forecast model. The design of an appropriate fitness function is the main challenge for this task, and we describe two different proposals based on the log-likelihood of the candidate model against the training data set. The resulting forecasts are compared with the Relative Intensity algorithm, which is traditionally employed by the CSEP community as a benchmark, using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) earthquake catalog. The forecasts generated by the GA were competitive with the benchmarks, specially in scenarios with a large amount of inland seismic activity.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Aranha C., Lavinas Y., Ladeira M. and Enescu B. (2014). Is it Possible to Generate Good Earthquake Risk Models Using Genetic Algorithms? . In Proceedings of the International Conference on Evolutionary Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: ECTA, (IJCCI 2014) ISBN 978-989-758-052-9, pages 49-58. DOI: 10.5220/0005072600490058

in Bibtex Style

@conference{ecta14,
author={Claus Aranha and Yuri Cossich Lavinas and Marcelo Ladeira and Bogdan Enescu},
title={Is it Possible to Generate Good Earthquake Risk Models Using Genetic Algorithms?},
booktitle={Proceedings of the International Conference on Evolutionary Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: ECTA, (IJCCI 2014)},
year={2014},
pages={49-58},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005072600490058},
isbn={978-989-758-052-9},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the International Conference on Evolutionary Computation Theory and Applications - Volume 1: ECTA, (IJCCI 2014)
TI - Is it Possible to Generate Good Earthquake Risk Models Using Genetic Algorithms?
SN - 978-989-758-052-9
AU - Aranha C.
AU - Lavinas Y.
AU - Ladeira M.
AU - Enescu B.
PY - 2014
SP - 49
EP - 58
DO - 10.5220/0005072600490058