A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality

Duygun Fatih Demirel, Melek Basak

2015

Abstract

Human mortality modeling and forecasting are important study fields since mortality rates are essential in financial and social policy making. Among many others, Lee Carter (LC) model is one of the most popular stochastic method in mortality forecasting. Koissi and Shapiro fuzzified the standard LC model and eliminated the assumptions of homoscedasticity and the ambiguity on the size of the error term variances. In this study, a modified version of fuzzy LC model incorporating singular value decomposition (SVD) technique is proposed. Utilizing SVD instead of ordinary least squares in the fuzzy LC model allows the model to capture existing fluctuations in mortality rates and yields a better fit. The proposed method is applied to Finland mortality data for years 1925 to 2009. The results are compared with Koissi and Shapiro’s fuzzy LC method and the standard LC method. Numerical findings show that proposed method gives statistically better results in generating small spreads and in estimating mortality rates when compared with Koissi and Shapiro’s method.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Demirel D. and Basak M. (2015). A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality . In Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: FCTA, (ECTA 2015) ISBN 978-989-758-157-1, pages 17-24. DOI: 10.5220/0005581700170024

in Bibtex Style

@conference{fcta15,
author={Duygun Fatih Demirel and Melek Basak},
title={A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: FCTA, (ECTA 2015)},
year={2015},
pages={17-24},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005581700170024},
isbn={978-989-758-157-1},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 7th International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence - Volume 1: FCTA, (ECTA 2015)
TI - A Modified Fuzzy Lee-Carter Method for Modeling Human Mortality
SN - 978-989-758-157-1
AU - Demirel D.
AU - Basak M.
PY - 2015
SP - 17
EP - 24
DO - 10.5220/0005581700170024