A System Dynamics Model to Study the Impact of an Age Pyramid on Emergency Demand

Bożena Mielczarek, Jacek Zabawa, Marek Lubicz

2014

Abstract

This paper describes a system dynamics simulation model to analyse the relationship between age pyramid and the volume of patients arriving to hospital emergency departments located in a sub-region of Lower Silesia of Poland. The study relies on demographic and historical demand data, and the cohort forecasts for the population of the region. The results of the simulation experiments provide insights into the relationship between sub-regional demographic trends and population needs in relation to hospital emergency arrivals. The preliminary findings indicate that the forecasted long-term demographic changes in the population may increase the number of emergency patients in the area.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Mielczarek B., Zabawa J. and Lubicz M. (2014). A System Dynamics Model to Study the Impact of an Age Pyramid on Emergency Demand . In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: HA, (SIMULTECH 2014) ISBN 978-989-758-038-3, pages 879-888. DOI: 10.5220/0005132008790888

in Bibtex Style

@conference{ha14,
author={Bożena Mielczarek and Jacek Zabawa and Marek Lubicz},
title={A System Dynamics Model to Study the Impact of an Age Pyramid on Emergency Demand},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: HA, (SIMULTECH 2014)},
year={2014},
pages={879-888},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005132008790888},
isbn={978-989-758-038-3},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: HA, (SIMULTECH 2014)
TI - A System Dynamics Model to Study the Impact of an Age Pyramid on Emergency Demand
SN - 978-989-758-038-3
AU - Mielczarek B.
AU - Zabawa J.
AU - Lubicz M.
PY - 2014
SP - 879
EP - 888
DO - 10.5220/0005132008790888