Bayesian Sample Size Optimization Method for Integrated Test Design of Missile Hit Accuracy

Guangling Dong, Chi He, Zhenguo Dai, Yanchang Huang, Xiaochu Hang

2015

Abstract

Sample size determination (SSD) for integrated test of missile hit accuracy is addressed in this paper. Bayesian approach to SSD gives test designer the possibility of taking into account of prior information and uncertainty on unknown parameters of interest. This fact offers the advantage of removing or mitigating typical drawbacks of classical methods, which might lead to serious miscalculation of the sample size. However, standard power prior based Bayesian SSD method cannot cope with integrated SSD for both simulation test and field test, as large numbers of simulation samples would cause contradiction between design prior and average posterior variance criterion (APVC). In allusion to this problem, we propose a test design effect equivalent method for equivalent sample size (ESS) calculation, which combined simulation credibility, sample size, and power prior exponent to get a rational design prior for subsequent field test. Average posterior variance (APV) of interested parameters is deduced by simulation credibility, sample sizes of two kinds of test, and prior distribution parameters. Thus, we get optimal design equations of integrated test scheme under both test cost constraints and required posterior precision constraint, whose effectiveness are illustrated with two examples.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Dong G., He C., Dai Z., Huang Y. and Hang X. (2015). Bayesian Sample Size Optimization Method for Integrated Test Design of Missile Hit Accuracy . In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH, ISBN 978-989-758-120-5, pages 244-253. DOI: 10.5220/0005510902440253

in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech15,
author={Guangling Dong and Chi He and Zhenguo Dai and Yanchang Huang and Xiaochu Hang},
title={Bayesian Sample Size Optimization Method for Integrated Test Design of Missile Hit Accuracy},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,},
year={2015},
pages={244-253},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005510902440253},
isbn={978-989-758-120-5},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,
TI - Bayesian Sample Size Optimization Method for Integrated Test Design of Missile Hit Accuracy
SN - 978-989-758-120-5
AU - Dong G.
AU - He C.
AU - Dai Z.
AU - Huang Y.
AU - Hang X.
PY - 2015
SP - 244
EP - 253
DO - 10.5220/0005510902440253