LLUNPIY Preliminary Extension for Simulating Primary Lahars - Application to the 1877 Cataclysmic Event of Cotopaxi Volcano

Guillermo Machado, Valeria Lupiano, Gino Mirocle Crisci, Salvatore Di Gregorio

2015

Abstract

Cotopaxi volcano is one of the most studied and surveyed volcanos in the world because the repetition of the 1877 catastrophic lahar invasion, is not implausible, threatening now more than 100,000 persons. A reliable forecasting tool is very important for projecting security measures. LLUNPIY is a Cellular Automata model for simulating lahars in terms of complex system evolving on the base of local interaction. Here, LLUNPIY extension is applied to Cotopaxi event of 1877 primary lahars, after the successful simulation of some secondary lahars of Tungurahua volcano. Such an extension permitted simulations with different initial hypotheses: our preliminary simulations agree in outline with field studies about the evolution of event, moreover LLUNPIY permits a broader approach to overall phenomenon in comparison with other tools.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Machado G., Lupiano V., Crisci G. and Di Gregorio S. (2015). LLUNPIY Preliminary Extension for Simulating Primary Lahars - Application to the 1877 Cataclysmic Event of Cotopaxi Volcano . In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH, ISBN 978-989-758-120-5, pages 367-376. DOI: 10.5220/0005542903670376

in Bibtex Style

@conference{simultech15,
author={Guillermo Machado and Valeria Lupiano and Gino Mirocle Crisci and Salvatore Di Gregorio},
title={LLUNPIY Preliminary Extension for Simulating Primary Lahars - Application to the 1877 Cataclysmic Event of Cotopaxi Volcano},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,},
year={2015},
pages={367-376},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005542903670376},
isbn={978-989-758-120-5},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications - Volume 1: SIMULTECH,
TI - LLUNPIY Preliminary Extension for Simulating Primary Lahars - Application to the 1877 Cataclysmic Event of Cotopaxi Volcano
SN - 978-989-758-120-5
AU - Machado G.
AU - Lupiano V.
AU - Crisci G.
AU - Di Gregorio S.
PY - 2015
SP - 367
EP - 376
DO - 10.5220/0005542903670376