Prediction for Disease Risk and Medical Cost using Time Series Healthcare Data

Masatoshi Nagata, Kazunori Matsumoto, Masayuki Hashimoto

2016

Abstract

Foreseeing the medical expenditure is beneficial for both insurance companies and individuals. In this paper we propose a new methodology to predict disease risk and medical cost. Based on sequential latent dirichlet allocation (SeqLDA), which classifies hierarchical sequential data into segments of topics, we tried to predict the number of people with diseases and the one-year cost of lifestyle-related diseases. Using the health checkup information and medical claims of 6500 people for three years, we achieved that prediction error was less than conventional LDA, and for accuracy rate, AUC was more than 0.71. The results suggest that the SeqLDA method serve to predict the number of people with diseases and the related medical costs using time series healthcare data.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Nagata M., Matsumoto K. and Hashimoto M. (2016). Prediction for Disease Risk and Medical Cost using Time Series Healthcare Data . In Proceedings of the 9th International Joint Conference on Biomedical Engineering Systems and Technologies - Volume 5: HEALTHINF, (BIOSTEC 2016) ISBN 978-989-758-170-0, pages 517-522. DOI: 10.5220/0005827405170522

in Bibtex Style

@conference{healthinf16,
author={Masatoshi Nagata and Kazunori Matsumoto and Masayuki Hashimoto},
title={Prediction for Disease Risk and Medical Cost using Time Series Healthcare Data},
booktitle={Proceedings of the 9th International Joint Conference on Biomedical Engineering Systems and Technologies - Volume 5: HEALTHINF, (BIOSTEC 2016)},
year={2016},
pages={517-522},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0005827405170522},
isbn={978-989-758-170-0},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 9th International Joint Conference on Biomedical Engineering Systems and Technologies - Volume 5: HEALTHINF, (BIOSTEC 2016)
TI - Prediction for Disease Risk and Medical Cost using Time Series Healthcare Data
SN - 978-989-758-170-0
AU - Nagata M.
AU - Matsumoto K.
AU - Hashimoto M.
PY - 2016
SP - 517
EP - 522
DO - 10.5220/0005827405170522