UNRAVELLING BUENO DE MESQUITA’S GROUP DECISION MODEL

Jason B. Scholz, Gregory J. Calbert, Glen A. Smith

2011

Abstract

The development of societies of human and machine agents should benefit from an understanding of human group decision processes. Political Scientist and Professor, Bruce Bueno De Mesquita has made significant claims for the predictive accuracy of his computational model of group decision making, receiving much popular press including newspaper articles, books and a television documentary entitled “The New Nostradamus”. Despite these and many journal and conference publications related to the topic, no clear elicitation of the model exists in the open literature. We expose and present the model by careful navigation of the literature and illustrate the soundness of our interpretation by replicating De Mesquita’s own results. We also discuss concerns regarding model sensitivity and convergence.

Paper Citation

in Harvard Style

Scholz J., Calbert G. and Smith G. (2011). UNRAVELLING BUENO DE MESQUITA’S GROUP DECISION MODEL . In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Volume 1: ICAART, ISBN 978-989-8425-40-9, pages 18-30. DOI: 10.5220/0003121500180030

in Bibtex Style

@conference{icaart11,
author={Jason B. Scholz and Gregory J. Calbert and Glen A. Smith},
title={UNRAVELLING BUENO DE MESQUITA’S GROUP DECISION MODEL },
booktitle={Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Volume 1: ICAART,},
year={2011},
pages={18-30},
publisher={SciTePress},
organization={INSTICC},
doi={10.5220/0003121500180030},
isbn={978-989-8425-40-9},
}

in EndNote Style

TY - CONF
JO - Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Volume 1: ICAART,
TI - UNRAVELLING BUENO DE MESQUITA’S GROUP DECISION MODEL
SN - 978-989-8425-40-9
AU - Scholz J.
AU - Calbert G.
AU - Smith G.
PY - 2011
SP - 18
EP - 30
DO - 10.5220/0003121500180030